Climate Center Features
Global Circulation Models: A quick primer
General circulation models (GCMs or global climate models) have been designed to simulate the planet's future climate. In the past 30 years climate modelers have been improving the GCMs' spatial resolution from the first assessment report (FAR-1995) to the fourth report (AR4-2007) for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) to meet the needs of climate change impacts models simulating finer scale processes. Read More.
MC1 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model: Simulating Vegetation and Fire Response to Climate Change
MC1 is a widely used dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that has been used to simulate potential vegetation shifts in California and Alaska, all of North America, and over the entire globe under various climate change scenarios. However, past simulations were run at a scale that is too coarse (e.g., 10km x 10km for the California simulations) for use by local resource managers, but more recently, the model has been implemented at a finer resolution (800m x 800m) of greater utility to National Park staff. Read More.
MAPSS Model: Projections of Future Potential Vegetation
MAPSS (Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System) is a static biogeography model that projects potential vegetation distribution and hydrological flows on a grid. It simulates type of vegetation and density for all upland vegetation from deserts to wet forests. It uses long term, average monthly climate data (mean monthly temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed, and precipitation) as well as soils information (texture, depth). Read more.
Seasonal Fire Forecasting: National-scale Datasets Available Monthly
One notable aspect of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM) is the process-based fire module which simulates fire events and their impact on vegetation through time at regional to global scales. The module was built to explore the response of fire and its impacts to century-long scenarios of potential climatic change. To project fire disturbance years into the future, the MC1 fire module was designed to dynamically simulate fuel availability, fuel moisture, and changes in vegetation type. Read more.
Amazonia Rainforest: Possible dieback in 21st Century
While there remains strong disagreement between Global Circulation Models (GCMs) on the direction of precipitation changes across the Amazon Basin (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC, 2007), a new study, consistent with previous research, shows there is a high risk of biome shifts in the Amazon under certain climate regimes. Read more.
Sea Level Rise: Risk to US Coasts
The Pacific Northwest coast includes a wide diversity of coastal habitats from including bluffs, sandy beaches, coastal marshes, tidal flats and eelgrass beds, supporting myriad species of fish and wildlife as well as local economies and cultural history. These coastal habitat are threatened by various human activities due to continued population growth and pressures for development, which will be exacerbated by climate change. Read more.
Global Freshwater Crisis: 80% of the world vulnerable to water scarcity
Vörösmarty et al. (2010) summarized the combined effects of the stressors in a map characterizing the overall threat to both human water security and biodiversity. This overall threat could be offset by an “investment benefit factor” representing possible technological mitigation. However, despite the explicit goals of the Millenium assessment, the lack of major policy and financial commitments has contributed to the continued scarcity of basic sanitation services particularly in poor countries. Read more.
Mediterranean Ecosystems: Areas Most at Risk from Climate Change?
Klausmeyer and Shaw (2009), from the California Nature Conservancy, analyzed 136 projections of future climate and created a map of the projected area of Mediterranean ecosystems in the future with various levels of confidence with regard to their regional expansion or contraction. Read more.
Climate and Plant Production: Are Climatic Controls Changing?
In 1998 Churkina and Running showed how temperature, water, and radiation controlled global net primary production. In 2003 Nemani et al. showed a general increase in global productivity of terrestrial systems that was interpreted as the result of a warming trend. In 2010 Zhao and Running show a decrease in global productivity that they attribute to severe regional droughts. Green-up and Brown-down? Read more.
California: How Vulnerable is it to Climate Change?
In the future, climate change will increasingly interact with and intensify the pressures of a growing population on the natural ecosystems of California. In 2005, the California Climate Change Center initiated the multi-disciplinary “Climate Scenarios” project to analyze potential climate change impacts on different sectors of the state. Future climate scenarios were selected from the IPCC Fourth Climate Assessment that provides several simulations generated by General Circulation Models using SRES emission scenarios. Read More.
Pinyon Pine Decline: Massive Die-off in the Southwest US
Compared to the drought of the 1950s that caused significant ponderosa and pinyon pines mortality, the recent drought (1999-2009) in the southwest US was even warmer (Breshears et al. 2005). Mortality during the 1950s drought was documented on dry, often lower elevation sites, affecting older trees while the recent drought affected high elevation sites and all age classes. Regional aerial surveys conducted by the U.S. Forest Service confirm that there was widespread mortality in the four corners area (CO, NM, AZ, UT). Read More.
Pacific Northwest: Climate Impacts on Vegetation
A new assessment of the potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest of the USA shows a mosaic of vulnerable and resilient areas. Researchers found that coastal forests are vulnerable to large increases in fires, subsequent losses in carbon stocks, and encroachment from more southerly and/or easterly forest types. The dry, fire-adapted forests east of the Cascades are projected to be more resilient to climate change. Read More.
Canada Lynx: Can we Justify Spending Milllions to Protect Them?
The short answer is: Yes. Canada Lynx were driven out of Colorado and gone for several decades until they were reintroduced in 1999. After releasing 218 individuals, researchers have tracked their long-range dispersal – lynx released in Colorado were captured in Alaska, British Columbia, Manitoba, Quebec, and Yukon. The reintroduction provides valuable information on how lynx use the landscape. Read More.
Redwoods: Models Predict Range Shifts and Contraction of Distribution
Data Basin is the host for spatial outputs that will be generated as part of the Redwood Climate Change Initiative. A major project of Save-the-Redwoods League, this comprehensive and integrated study of climate impacts on coastal redwoods is being conducted in partnership with researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, Humboldt State University and the California Academy of Sciences. Read More.
Yosemite: Scientists Predict Major Vegetation Shifts in Yosemite
It is a challenge to manage National Parks in the face of a changing climate. A multi-institutional research team recently provided Yosemite National Park resource managers with an analysis to help prepare for upcoming changes. This study is particularly important because prior to having this downscaled climate data, resource managers did not have information at a fine enough resolution to support decision making. Read More.
Watershed Resilience: Learning From a Case Study in Washington State?
Predicted changes in climate have major implications for the distribution of water. In order to develop adaptation strategies for watersheds in the state of Washington, scientists investigated 26 watersheds in the Olympic Peninsula and Northern Cascades regions.The team identified areas for
protection that are most resistant to the effects of climate change and developed ways to increase resilience of places. Read More.
Minnesota Forest Modeling: Using Data Basin as a Tool to Engage Stakeholders
The Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC) are collaborating to forecast how the forests of northeastern MN may be altered due to climate change. Data Basin is being used to share the model inputs and outputs and to solicit feedback from stakeholders. Read More.
